沪铜产业日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and strengthened, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the copper ore supply has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, the smelter's production capacity is expected to be limited, and the domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the holidays, but the spot market's purchasing intention is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a red column above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,800 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 10,678.50 dollars/ton, up 100.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 175,899 hands, down 11,667 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 2,306 hands, up 395 hands. The LME copper inventory was 138,800 tons, down 550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 109,690 tons, up 14,656 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 8,550 tons, down 2,175 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 44,531 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,235 yuan/ton, down 755 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,495 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 565 yuan/ton, down 2,145 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was 54.87 dollars/ton, down 171.91 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,790 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,490 yuan/metal ton, down 480 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The production of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, up 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,940 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 22.01%, up 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.49%, up 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 20.09%, down 0.0144%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.28, down 0.127 [2]. Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the liquidity in the money market is gradually tightening, and the balance - sheet reduction may be close to an end in the next few months. Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments. The IMF predicted that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025. The production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles in China in September reached new highs [2].