瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to be abundant and demand to weaken. Without production cut expectations, prices are likely to continue falling, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. It shows some signs of bottom - building, and investors are advised to short - term go long on the main soda ash contract at low levels [2]. - For glass, in October, the supply is relatively stable, and there are expectations of production line cold - repairs due to factors like rising natural gas prices and environmental policies. The demand showed a short - term rebound during the National Day but may not be sustainable. Prices are likely to rise with a pattern of post - holiday supply contraction, reduced inventory pressure, and policy expectations. Investors are advised to short - term go long on the main glass contract at low levels [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,232 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,129 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 103 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,377,333 lots, down 7,021 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,464,845 lots, up 55,157 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest is - 267,465 lots, up 766 lots; glass top 20 net open interest is - 179,438 lots, down 40,952 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,856 tons, down 26 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; glass basis is - 13 yuan, up 1 yuan [2]. - The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 142 yuan, down 8 yuan; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 87 yuan, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,145 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 88.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 168.46 million tons, up 2.48 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 62.824 million weight boxes, up 3.469 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Many soda ash plants have production adjustments, including production cuts, startups, and load changes. For example, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical's soda ash plant reduced production, Hubei Shuanghuan's plant started up, and Shandong Hualu - Hengsheng's plant restored production [2]. - Overall, the domestic soda ash operating rate is rising, and production is increasing. In the long - term, some backward production capacity may be phased out, while natural - soda ash production capacity is rising [2]. - The Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market is stable, and supply is expected to increase with plant restarts [2]. Glass Market - In October, glass production lines are relatively stable. Rising natural gas prices may lead to more cold - repairs, and environmental policies may limit capacity release [2]. - During the National Day, the real estate sales situation improved, but the overall price recovery is limited, and demand may not be sustainable [2].