合成橡胶产业日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2512 contract is a price fluctuation in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton. With the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants, domestic production is expected to increase. Although some plants are under maintenance, others are increasing their production loads. On the raw material side, despite the maintenance plans of some butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the recovery of previous under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance plans, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous period; the position of the main contract is 24,468 lots, down 4,607 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 3,070 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in various regions have declined. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 155 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 553 dollars/ton, down 13.75 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,010 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8,575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, down 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,600 tons, unchanged; the trader's inventory is 5,700 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, down 0.23 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points lower than the same period last year [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Some enterprises arranged maintenance during the holiday, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].