建信期货国债日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, leading to a full - scale rise in Treasury bond futures. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, and the money market remains stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The bond market sentiment is still weak due to various negative factors, but it may stabilize in October after risk clearance. The counter - offensive phase may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is advisable to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle to late fourth quarter [8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: A - share's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, and Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropping 0.7bp to 1.754% by 16:30. The money market is stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The central bank conducts a net injection of 91 billion yuan, short - term money rates mostly fall, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rises slightly [8][9][10]. - Conclusion: In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives. However, it may enter a window period for risk clearance after negative factors are realized and is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may occur in the middle to late fourth quarter [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China officially imposes special port fees on US ships starting today. - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China. - China's total goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reach 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, with accelerating quarterly growth. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th. - The issuance of the 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 is successfully completed [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: It includes data on Treasury bond futures trading, such as contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests. It also involves data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts (inter - term and inter - variety spreads) and the trends of major Treasury bond futures contracts [6]. - Money Market: It presents data on the money market, including the changes in the weighted average rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the trends of SHIBOR [24][32]. - Derivatives Market: It shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [36].