建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continues to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises increase maintenance due to lower - than - expected peak - season demand, the expected maintenance loss from September to November will narrow, and new production capacity is planned to be launched in the fourth quarter, making it difficult to relieve the overall supply pressure. - After the holiday, social inventories have increased. In October, there is still some demand resilience, but new orders are limited. Most downstream enterprises mainly replenish stocks at low prices, facing great de - stocking pressure. - Crude oil has revised its supply forecast upwards, and inventories may accumulate faster in the fourth quarter, providing little cost support for polyolefins, which are under pressure to operate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton (- 1.24%), with a trading volume of 266,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 12,312 lots to 577,097 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6602 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan (- 1.58%), with an increase in open interest of 22,000 lots to 665,500 lots. - Market Situation: The low - opening and fluctuating futures market dampened trading sentiment. As some ex - factory prices were lowered, traders adjusted their quotes accordingly. Downstream enterprises mainly made small - order purchases. The supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continued to suppress prices, and the cost support was weak [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On October 14, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (- 1.79%) from the previous working day, compared with 860,000 tons in the same period last year. - PE Market: The PE market price fell weakly. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening trading sentiment. The LLDPE prices in North China were 6950 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China 7000 - 7550 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6200 - 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream products faced cost pressure, and the overall demand for propylene was weak. - PP Market: The PP market continued to decline, with some prices falling by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The futures market fluctuated narrowly with high upward resistance, increasing market concerns. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6550 - 6620 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6680 yuan/ton, and 6530 - 6680 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, L and PP basis, two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][14][15].