建信期货生猪日报-20251015

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and are likely to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of second - round fattening will continue to increase to drive the market under the low - price background. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to the relatively large supply growth rate despite the increase in both supply and demand [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 14th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed positive. The highest was 12,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,806 lots to 275,436 lots [8]. - Spot Market: On the 14th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 10.89 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - Supply Side: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and some slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [9]. - Demand Side: Currently, the cost of meat production in second - round fattening is low, and there is some demand for restocking after the decline in barn utilization in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has slightly declined after the festival. However, as the weather continues to cool, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased, but the overall increase is limited. On October 14th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 159,800 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 6,000 heads week - on - week, and 11,100 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [17]. - Piglet Price: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - Price Difference between Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [17].