大越期货沥青期货早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production, which will reduce the supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. The overall demand recovery is less than expected despite the peak season [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: According to Longzhong, in August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production to ease the supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil [9]. - Market Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. - Leverage Factors: High - cost crude oil provides some support; high - price supply has insufficient demand, and overall demand is declining with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - Main Logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Contracts: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts, including 01 - 04 contracts, showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.16% to 0.47%. The basis of each contract also decreased to varying degrees [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 1.058 million tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: On October 14, the spot price in Shandong was 3460 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 293 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. - Spread: Multiple charts show the price trends and spread relationships between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as the spread trends of different asphalt contracts [18][21][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. - Supply - side Analysis: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly shipment volume decreased by 29.39% to 221,300 tons [8][42]. - Inventory Analysis: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio. Social inventory is decreasing, while factory inventory is increasing [16][63][67]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [73][76]. - Demand - side Analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, and asphalt 开工率. The current demand is lower than the historical average level [79][82][85]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance situation of asphalt, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [103][104].