大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 73,640 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,349 yuan/ton, a 0.07% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,413 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,178 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,225 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On October 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market Chart: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In September 2025, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.12% to 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) decreased by 2.27% to 1,725 yuan/ton [13]. - Lithium Salt: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 73,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 70,750 yuan/ton [13]. - Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over time [22]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [22]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with a significant decrease in imports from Australia [15][22]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [22]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale has changed over the years [22]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [28]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume have changed [28]. - Recycling: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has changed [31]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) and the total production have changed [37]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica: The production cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed over time [42]. - Recycling: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from recycled materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, etc.) have changed [44]. - Other: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, etc., have changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed [49]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [53]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [53]. - Loading: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials) has changed [53]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [58]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed [58]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed [58]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has changed monthly [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [64]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed [64]. - Production: The production of ternary materials has changed [64]. - Export - Import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [66]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - Price: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed over time [68]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of phosphate iron lithium have changed [68]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [76]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed [76]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed [76]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [77]. - Inventory Index: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed [80].