大越期货豆粕早报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 2960. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the demand turning weak, high import soybean arrivals in October, and the spot price discount [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3940 - 4040. It is affected by the cost support of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, as well as the high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [11]. - The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the document 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation remains deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data: The transaction price and volume of soybean meal and soybeans have changed from September 26 to October 14. The price of soybean meal futures has shown a weak oscillation, while the spot price has been relatively stable, and the spot discount has slightly narrowed [16][18][23]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: The number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal has changed from September 24 to October 14 [20]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - Range: 2900 - 2960 [9]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybean meal oscillated and declined due to short - term weakening demand and technical consolidation [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2890 (East China), with a basis of - 12, indicating a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. Soybeans - Range: 3940 - 4040 [11]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybeans oscillated and recovered, supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand, but suppressed by high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - Basis: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 133, indicating a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [11]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in [11].