Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, with increasing supply and weak demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making the downward trend difficult to reverse [8][13]. - The polysilicon market also shows a situation of supply exceeding demand. Although there is cost support, the overall demand is in a state of decline, but it may rebound later. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous period [8]. - Demand: The demand was 82,000 tons. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level. The overall demand was weak [8]. - Cost: The production of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was at a loss of 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [8]. - Base Difference: On October 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.29%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [8]. - Disk Surface: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Force Position: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous period. The planned output in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was weak [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [10]. - Base Difference: The basis of the N - type dense material was 2,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous period [10]. - Disk Surface: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Force Position: The main force had a net long position, and the long position decreased [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 - contract decreased by 2.86% [16]. - The spot prices of some products remained stable, such as the East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon [16]. - Inventory data showed different trends, with some inventories increasing and some remaining stable [16]. Polysilicon - Futures contracts generally showed an upward trend. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 2.39% [18]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [18]. - Inventory data showed that the total weekly inventory increased by 6.19% [18]. 3. Price and Inventory Trends Industrial Silicon - The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends showed the relationship between the basis, spot price, and closing price [20]. - The inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises were presented [26]. Polysilicon - The disk price trend showed the price and trading volume changes of the main contract [23]. - The basis trend showed the relationship between the basis, closing price, and spot price [24]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [38]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the actual consumption, export, import, and production of industrial silicon in different months [41]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance of polysilicon in different months [65]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends were presented, including the capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, and production volume trend [44]. - The price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 were presented [46][47]. - The import - export and inventory trends of DMC were presented [51]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends were presented, including the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import - export situation of unforged aluminum alloy, and the production and inventory trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots [54][57]. - The demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub markets were presented [58]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends were presented, including the industry cost trend, price trend of N - type dense material and N - type recycled material, and the inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [62]. - The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented, including the price, production, inventory, and import - export trends of each link [68][71][74][77].
工业硅期货早报-20251015
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-15 02:13