大越期货菜粕早报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, the spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news and remain volatile [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expands. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] [25][27][35]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed enters the harvesting stage, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports decrease, and the domestic supply is expected to decline. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which will support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large [12]. - Bearish Factors: The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From September 26 to October 14, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2470 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 462 yuan/ton to 519 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, and the spot price also decreased slightly [13][15]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - Warehouse Receipts: From September 25 to October 14, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9245 to 9089, with a decrease of 156 [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increase, and the funds flow in [9].