农产品早报-20251016

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn. In the long - term, the game between farmers and traders will be crucial, and if prices drop significantly, farmers may resist selling, leading to a price rebound [1] - Starch prices are expected to decline in the short - term as raw material prices weaken, and inventory accumulation may further restrict price rebounds. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is key, and a significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment [2] - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak - season supply. In the domestic market, imported sugar arrivals and lower processing sugar quotes are pressuring the price [3] - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as a long - term bottom. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5] - Egg prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to high supply and seasonal demand decline after the holiday. The acceleration of chicken culling may support prices [9] - Apple's new - season production in the whole country is not expected to differ greatly from last year, but some areas have quality issues due to rainfall. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty [12] - For pigs, if the near - term pressure continues to be released, it will strengthen the policy expectations for the far - term production capacity inflection point next year. There may be short - term rebounds, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [12] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn - Price Data: From October 9 - 15, prices in some regions remained stable, while the price in蛇口 increased by 30. The basis decreased by 8, trade profit increased by 30, and import profit increased by 31 [1] - Analysis: New - season corn has been listed, and short - term prices are weak due to concentrated supply. Long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders [1] Starch - Analysis: After the holiday, new - season corn listing led to lower raw material purchase prices, but starch price adjustment is limited due to high production costs. Short - term prices may decline, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [2] Sugar - Price Data: From October 9 - 15, the spot prices in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 16, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 50 [3] - Analysis: International market supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and in the domestic market, imported sugar arrivals and lower quotes are pressuring the price [3] Cotton - Price Data: From October 9 - 15, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 25, and the import profit increased by 9 [14] - Analysis: Cotton is in a consolidation phase, and the long - term bottom may be at the April low. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5] Eggs - Price Data: From October 9 - 15, prices in some regions remained stable, while the price in Hubei increased by 0.04. The price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.27 [9] - Analysis: Egg prices dropped 12.5% during the holiday, and short - term prices are expected to be weak. Chicken culling rhythm is a key factor [9] Apples - Price Data: From October 9 - 14, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis of different contracts changed [11] - Analysis: New - season apples in the western region are being bag - removed, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. The national production is similar to last year, but some areas have quality issues [12] Pigs - Price Data: From October 9 - 15, prices in some regions increased, and the basis increased by 150 [12] - Analysis: Near - term pressure release may strengthen far - term production capacity inflection point expectations. There may be short - term rebounds, but medium - term supply pressure remains [12]