芳烃橡胶早报-20251016

Group 1: PTA Market Core View - Proximal TA maintenance led to a slight decline in PTA operation rate, while polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, basis remained weak, and spot processing fees stayed at a low level. PX domestic operation rate rose, overseas units restarted, PXN widened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency remained stable while isomerization efficiency weakened, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia widened. In the future, TA may have additional production cuts and production plans, but considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fees are relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. Key Points - The average daily trading basis of PTA main contract 2601 was - 85. The 3.6 - million - ton Yisheng New Materials increased its operation rate [1]. Group 2: MEG Market Core View - Proximal domestic oil - based operation rate remained stable, coal - based units restarted, and the overall load rose to a high level. There were some overseas maintenance. After the holiday, the port arrivals increased while the shipments were dull, and the port inventory accumulated significantly at the beginning of next week. The basis strengthened slightly, and the benefit ratio further shrank. In the future, with the existing operation rate reaching a high level and new units being put into production, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the coal - based benefits and ratios weaken, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based production costs [7]. Key Points - The MEG spot trading basis was around + 64 for the 01 contract. Shell's 400,000 - ton unit was under maintenance [7]. Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber Market Core View - The Xinjiang Jianshanli unit was under maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing increased its operation rate, the operation rate dropped to 94.3%, the production and sales weakened month - on - month, and the inventory accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking continued, the finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, and the benefits were weak. In the future, due to the high - level finished product inventory of polyester yarn, the speed of increasing the operation rate may slow down. Although the spot benefits of staple fiber are acceptable and the operation rate remains high, the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fees are expected to fluctuate [7]. Key Points - The spot price was around 6293, and the market basis was around + 60 for the 11 contract [7]. Group 4: Natural Rubber Market Core View - The national explicit inventory remained stable at an absolute level. The price of Thai cup rubber remained stable, and there was rainfall. The strategy was to wait and see [7]. Key Points - There were detailed price data for various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, etc. from October 9 - 15, 2025 [7]. Group 5: Styrene and Related Products Market Core View - There were price changes in various products such as ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc., and profit changes in products like ABS, EPS, PS. The production and operation rates of related products also showed certain trends [7]. Key Points - There were daily price changes and profit data for products including ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, ABS, EPS, PS from October 9 - 15, 2025 [7].