瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of October 15, domestic methanol production output increased slightly, with the production capacity of resumed plants exceeding that of those under maintenance or reduction. The total port inventory decreased, with destocking in East China and inventory accumulation in South China. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased. The MTO industry maintained high - level operation, but the short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2298 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1038960 lots, down 12400 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 124683 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11282, unchanged [2]. b. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2077.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 232.5 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port was 261 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.07 US dollars [2]. d. Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 108.05 tons, up 4.78 tons; South China port inventory was 46.27 tons, up 0.32 tons. Methanol import profit was 25.83 yuan/ton, up 10.4 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 339400 tons, up 19500 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 89.59%, up 7.06% [2]. e. Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate was 34.11%, down 10.07%; dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.98%, down 2.22%; acetic acid operating rate was 82.96%, up 3.99%; MTBE operating rate was 64.12%, down 0.11%; olefin operating rate was 93.19%, up 1.3%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1099 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, up 0.67%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.08%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.54%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.52%, up 0.25% [2]. g. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, up 2.05 tons, a 6.04% increase; the order backlog was 22.89 tons, up 11.37 tons, a 98.64% increase. The total port inventory was 149.14 tons, down 5.18 tons. East China destocked by 8.35 tons, and South China accumulated inventory by 3.17 tons. As of October 9, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 93.74%, up 4.49% [2].