贵金属早报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to rising tariff concerns, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and a decline in risk appetite, both gold and silver prices are on an upward trend. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and tariff concerns may lead to an enlarged increase in silver prices [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices remains high, with prices still more likely to rise than fall. Silver prices, mainly following gold prices, are also affected by tariff concerns, which may lead to an enlarged increase [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: U.S. stock and European stock indices closed with mixed results. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.37 basis points to 4.032%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.39% to 98.67. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce. The gold futures price was 960.34, the spot price was 957.3, with a basis of - 3.04 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2916 kilograms to 75099 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, silver prices rose significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11966, the spot price was 11930, with a basis of - 36 (spot at a discount to futures). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 32643 kilograms to 1030429 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to rising tariff concerns, a decline in risk appetite, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 2.3 yuan/gram, indicating a significant increase in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - Silver: Silver prices continue to rise significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded significantly to - 40 yuan/gram, indicating a significant recovery in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple economic data releases and speeches are scheduled, including the Japanese central bank's market operation meeting, Japan's August core machinery orders, Australia's September employment report, the U.K.'s August GDP, and speeches by multiple central bank officials such as those from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: Bullish factors include global turmoil, a significant shadow Fed, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9][13]. - Silver: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and in addition, non - ferrous metal tariffs support silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [12][13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 212,862, an increase of 2,204 (1.05%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 80,154, an increase of 1,323 (1.68%). The net long position was 132,708, an increase of 881 (0.67%) [29]. - Silver: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 379,089, an increase of 22,782 (6.39%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 287,130, an increase of 23,637 (8.97%). The net long position was 91,959, a decrease of 855 (- 0.92%) [32].