大越期货油脂早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The tense Sino - US relations have put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Oil Types Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - cut season. The overall view is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8432, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9362, with a basis of - 40, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10153, with a basis of 221, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. 4. Recent利多 and利空 Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].