白糖早报-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. After continuous declines, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) will experience short - term low - level shock adjustments. Although the overall center of gravity is moving down, the trend is tortuous, and there may be small intraday rebounds [4][8] - There are multiple factors affecting the sugar market. On one hand, there are positive factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. On the other hand, there are negative factors like the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new season, the drop in foreign sugar prices, and the opening of the import profit window [6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO predicted a supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. The overall situation was bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou was 5,840 yuan, and the basis was 437 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which was bullish [4] - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, a neutral situation [4] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [4] - Main Position: The position was bearish, the net short position increased, and the main trend was unclear, which was bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Forecast by Institutions: Different institutions had different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expected a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (close to balance); StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow expected a surplus between 6.2 million and 7.5 million tons; Datagro expected a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics expected a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expected a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool expected a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [34] - China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet: The sugar - cane planting area in 2025/26 was expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area was 210,000 hectares, the sugar production was expected to be 11.2 million tons, the import volume was 5 million tons, the consumption was 15.9 million tons, and the balance change was 120,000 tons. The international sugar price was expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price was expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36] - Import Cost: The duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff in September 2025 was about 5,454 yuan per ton, with the ICE raw sugar average price of about 15.79 cents per pound and the import source from Brazil [41] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content