沪锌期货早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the long - side reduction being more significant. Overall, it was a volatile trend with shrinking volume. The bulls actively exited the market, and the bears also actively left. In the short term, the market may oscillate and weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, running at the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator declined, with the bullish strength decreasing and the bearish strength increasing, and the dominance of the bearish strength expanding. It is recommended that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate and weaken [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +55, which is neutral [2]. - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 7,172 tons to 65,666 tons compared with the previous day, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On October 15, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 232,694 lots, with a total trading value of 2.56184847 billion yuan. The open interest of all contracts was 210,731 lots, an increase of 675 lots [3]. 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On October 15, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From September 25 to October 13, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 1.354 million tons to 1.535 million tons, an increase of 251,000 tons compared with September 29 and 174,000 tons compared with October 9 [5]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 15, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 65,666 tons, an increase of 7,172 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 3,211 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 4,236 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons. The注销 ratio in Singapore was 36.38%, and in Hong Kong, China, it was 1.89% [8]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On October 15, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions varied. For example, in HIT HA, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2511 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on October 15, the total trading volume of members was 204,084 lots, an increase of 194 lots. The total long - position volume was 63,360 lots, a decrease of 2,569 lots, and the total short - position volume was 61,669 lots, a decrease of 1,671 lots [19]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [15].