Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of iron ore shows that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports has decreased this month, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a bullish sign [2]. - Port inventories are 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamental situation: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports is lower this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, being neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817 with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 833 with a basis of 56, showing spot premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, being bearish [2]. - Main position: The main iron ore position is net long and the long position is decreasing, being bullish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - Bearish factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Catalogs - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [14], iron ore shipments [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [29].
铁矿石早报（2025-10-16）-20251016
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-16 02:21