大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are bearish, with the plastic主力合约 expected to fluctuate weakly. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino - US macro risks contribute to this outlook. The PE market is also affected by a neutral - high industrial inventory and stable agricultural film operations [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate weakly. Similar to LLDPE, it is influenced by falling crude oil prices, elevated Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Sections LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil limits cost support for polyolefins. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, the risk of Sino - US trade disputes escalating increased, causing a significant drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance decreased, production increased, agricultural film operations were stable, and demand for other films was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6960 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 42, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 million tons (+11.3), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE主力 is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and a neutral - high industrial inventory [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved but remained in the contraction range. Crude oil's long - term pattern limited cost support, and Sino - US trade risks increased. Supply was abundant, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season, and pipe demand was weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6600 (-80), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 2, with a neutral position [6]. - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 million tons (+16.1), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP主力 is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 and relatively small increases in other years [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate was positive in most years, with relatively high growth in 2019 and 2020 [15].