大越期货纯碱早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. However, during the peak maintenance period within the year, the output is expected to decline [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1232 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 72 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.16% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.70% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Supply in Fundamentals - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 114.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from the historical low [14]. -开工率和产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.41%, and the weekly output is 77.08 tons, including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - Industry capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamentals - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. Inventory in Fundamentals - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].