大越期货玻璃早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass was 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value; the main basis was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight - boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [46]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [47]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - Negative Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [6]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Although there have been more supply - side disturbances recently, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, and it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate [7].