建信期货铁矿石日评-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 15, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated downward, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Considering the regular decline after the end of the quarterly volume rush, it is expected that the shipments in October will decline, and the arrival volume will gradually fall back. The daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has been slightly declining for 3 consecutive weeks. The growth space of production is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. The steel mill's iron ore inventory is expected to gradually fall back after the festival and return to the state of restocking on demand. Overall, the price may oscillate weakly, but it is still expected to fluctuate within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On October 15, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated downward, opening with an oscillating run and then falling back, and oscillating in the afternoon, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a dead cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - Future Outlook: BHP will change 30% of the amount in iron ore spot transactions with China to be settled in RMB from the fourth quarter of 2025. It has set an observation period for long - term contracts in 2026 and will start negotiations on long - term contracts denominated in RMB if the market acceptance of the RMB iron ore index reaches the standard. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September. It is expected that the shipments in October will decline, and the arrival volume will gradually fall back. The daily average pig iron output is still high but has been declining slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The growth space of production is limited. After the festival, the steel mill's iron ore inventory is expected to gradually fall back. Overall, the price may oscillate weakly but is still expected to fluctuate within the range since August [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - China's CPI in September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The decline of PPI narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US threat of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and consultation [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, the utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity, the trading volume at main ports, the available days of steel mill's iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and production capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22]