建信期货钢材日评-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - Future Outlook - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].