建信期货沥青日报-20251016

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The oil price is expected to decline, and the asphalt fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is predicted to fluctuate weakly, and the operation should be based on a short - selling strategy [6] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For BU2511, the opening price was 3274 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3250 yuan/ton, the highest was 3279 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3241 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.10%, and the trading volume was 11.28 million lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3190 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3184 yuan/ton, the highest was 3201 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3169 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.75%, and the trading volume was 4.33 million lots [6] - Spot market: The asphalt spot prices in the Northwest, Northeast, and East China regions were relatively stable, while those in other regions decreased to varying degrees. The decline in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a negative impact on the asphalt spot market [6] - Supply - demand analysis: The supply of asphalt is accelerating due to profit and raw material support. The demand increased in September and is expected to remain high in October under the support of the peak demand season. However, the speculative demand is limited due to the uncertainty of the crude oil end and the cautious sentiment in the spot market [6] Group 5: Industry News - South China market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3350 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some futures - cash merchants sold goods, and the continued decline of the asphalt futures market led to a decrease in the low - end price of the South China market. The market's receiving sentiment was weak [7] - East China market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. Due to the continued decline of the asphalt futures market and limited demand improvement, the futures and spot sources in the East China region continued to decline, pulling down the social inventory price. After the mainstream range of refinery road - transport prices was adjusted down, the price was temporarily stable [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19][23]