大越期货豆粕早报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 豆粕 (M2601): Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is waiting for new guidance from China - US trade negotiations and harvest weather. In China, low - price buying and technical adjustments support the market, but high imports and spot price discounts limit the upside. Overall, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - 大豆 (A2601): Forecasted to fluctuate between 3960 and 4060. The US soybean market has similar uncertainties as above. In China, the cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports prices, but high imports and expected domestic soybean production growth suppress the market. It will be affected by China - US trade and import volumes in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - 豆粕: Oscillates weakly in the futures market, with relatively stable spot prices and a slightly narrowing spot discount. The oil mill's soybean processing volume has declined from a high level, and the August bean meal production increased year - on - year. Downstream procurement has slightly decreased, while提货量 remains high. The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - 大豆: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand is positive. However, Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth are negative factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on harvest, imports, and trade negotiations. - China's imported soybean arrivals remain high in October. The oil mill's bean meal inventory has declined from a high level in October. The demand for bean meal has weakened in October due to reduced pig - farming profits, but the market is still oscillating due to trade uncertainties [13]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Concerns - 豆粕: Positive factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean weather. Negative factors are high October arrivals of imported soybeans and expected US soybean harvest and high yields. The main focus is on US soybean harvest weather and China - US trade tariff games [14]. - 大豆: Positive factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand. Negative factors are Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth. The main focus is on US soybean weather and China - US trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio fluctuating [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio also fluctuating [33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided, including percentages at different time points [34][35][38]. - USDA Supply - Demand Reports: Data from March - September 2025 shows changes in planting area, yield, production, end - of - period inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 3.5 Position Data - 豆粕: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - 大豆: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in, but overall, the market has a bearish bias [11].