大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [12]. - In the future, it is expected that supply will increase in the next month, demand will strengthen, and inventory may decrease. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,820 - 73,620 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,330 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily decrease; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 75,178 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily. The recycling end has a lower production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has a sufficient profit - making space and strong production motivation [9]. - Basis: On October 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries are provided, including their current values, previous values, changes, and change rates. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5.98% [15]. - Supply - Demand Data: Information on weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, production profits, production volumes, export and import volumes, and supply - demand balances of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products is presented [18][19]. - Price and Inventory Trends: The report shows the price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products, as well as the inventory trends of lithium carbonate in different periods and from different sources [21][25][31]. - Cost - Profit Analysis: The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are analyzed [45][47][50]. - Inventory Analysis: The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, are presented [52]. - Demand Analysis: The report provides information on the demand for lithium batteries, including battery prices, production volumes, shipments, and exports, as well as the demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles [56][61][71][79].