大越期货菜粕早报-20251016

Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Group 2: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2340 - 2400 range oscillation. Its fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a decrease both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out, which is bearish. Due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 29 to October 15, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract's price difference oscillating at a low level. Rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated and declined, while spot prices were relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][22]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to subsequent developments [9].