工业硅期货早报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8440 - 8700 [6]. - Polysilicon: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand is currently in a state of decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49985 - 51745 [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% week - on - week decrease, with continuous weak demand [6]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 240,000 tons (high), silicone inventory is 55,100 tons (low), aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 757,000 tons (high), social inventory is 545,000 tons (a 0.37% week - on - week increase), sample enterprise inventory is 167,850 tons (a 3.29% week - on - week increase), and main port inventory is 120,000 tons [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3126 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Base Difference: On October 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a 6.89% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 7.83% week - on - week increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in October is 55.68GW, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, and component production is in a profit state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Base Difference: The price of N - type dense material is 51,250 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference is 1885 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 240,000 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history, with a 6.19% week - on - week increase [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Market Overviews Industrial Silicon - Futures contract prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease, and inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had corresponding changes [14]. Polysilicon - Futures contract prices generally increased, and data on silicon wafer production, inventory, battery cell production, and component production also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial Silicon: Included price - base difference and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [18][24][27][33][35]. - Polysilicon: Included disk price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [21][59][62]. 3.4 Downstream Trends - Organic Silicon: Included DMC price and production trends, downstream product price trends, import - export and inventory trends [41][43][48]. - Aluminum Alloy: Included price and supply trends, inventory and production trends, and demand trends (automobile and wheel hub) [51][54][56]. - Polysilicon: Included fundamental trends, supply - demand balance tables, silicon wafer trends, battery cell trends, and photovoltaic component trends [59][62][65].