《有色》日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].