广发期货《有色》日报-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The given reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro - factors like the approaching China - US tariff extension deadline and the weak US employment report could drive short - term trading. The supply shortage of copper mines will support copper prices in the long - term. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued to be weak, and the aluminum market was in an oversupply situation. The spot price of aluminum is expected to remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton, supported by macro - easing expectations and a tight - balance fundamentals, but high prices are suppressing downstream procurement [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated, with the main contract slightly down. Cost support was prominent, but supply was restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand was moderately recovering, and inventory was increasing, suppressing price increases. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited. Demand did not exceed expectations. The Shanghai zinc is expected to remain oscillating between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remained tight, while demand was weak. The short - term macro - volatility is expected to increase. Consider buying on dips due to macro - sentiment drops. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly. Macro - risks increased, and there were some positive factors in the mining end, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, restricting price increases. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated weakly. Macro - risks increased, raw material prices were firm, but the peak - season demand was not met, and inventory pressure was high. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated. The supply - side situation was gradually becoming clear but with many uncertainties. Demand was robust, and the whole - chain inventory was decreasing. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, with the main contract price centered between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.88% to 85,235 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price and premium changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; in August, imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. Various inventory data also changed [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,920 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. Aluminum inventories also changed [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased by 0.24%. Various scrap - to - refined price differences remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons. The开工 rate of different types of enterprises also changed [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.90% to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons; in August, imports increased by 43.30% to 1.79 million tons. The开工 rate of related industries and inventory data also changed [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 281,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Other price and spread data also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons; in August, imports decreased by 40.19% to 1,296 tons. Inventory data also changed [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,300 yuan/ton. Various nickel - related prices and spreads changed [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons; imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. Inventory data also changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The futures - spot spread decreased by 8.11% [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. Import and export volumes, as well as inventory data, also changed [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 73,000 yuan/ton. Various lithium - related prices and spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. Inventory data also changed [17].