瑞银油价预测-UBS oil price forecast

Investment Rating - The report provides a comprehensive outlook on the global oil and gas industry, indicating a cautious but optimistic investment rating for major oil companies, reflecting the anticipated fluctuations in oil prices and demand dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $68.22 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent years, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3]. - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 1.1 Mb/d in 2026, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India [26][32]. - The global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.0 Mb/d in 2025 and 1.6 Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers [43][46]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Market Outlook - The report outlines a balanced view of the oil market, highlighting both supply and demand factors that will influence pricing and market stability [2]. UBS Oil Price Forecast - The forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices shows a downward trend from 2024 to 2026, with Brent expected to average $68.22 in 2025 and WTI at $64.84 [3]. Demand Analysis - Global oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.9 Mb/d in 2025, with significant growth in regions outside of OECD, particularly in Asia [23][26]. - The report notes that US gasoline demand is approximately 2% lower than the previous year, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [35]. Supply Analysis - Global oil supply is projected to grow significantly, with OPEC crude production expected to average 28.7 Mb/d in 2025, reflecting a recovery in output levels [43][49]. - The US is expected to lead supply growth, particularly from the Permian Basin, with a forecasted increase of 0.1 Mb/d in 2025 [81][87]. OPEC+ Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+ compliance and production strategies, indicating a cautious approach to managing output levels in response to market conditions [54][59]. - OPEC's spare capacity is projected to remain around 4.4 Mb/d in 2026, suggesting limited room for additional production increases [65]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in final investment decisions (FIDs) for new projects in 2025, which may impact future supply growth [104]. - Long-term oil price forecasts suggest a range of $70 to $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors [115].