建信期货集运指数日报-20251016

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 9 - 10 month is the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control and supply pressure remaining. The spot freight rate is currently falling. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, and there is a high probability of a bottom - out and rebound trend. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, but its substantial progress and impact on Red Sea re - navigation are uncertain. There are opportunities for an oversold rebound due to China's countermeasures against the US in the maritime sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Current situation: 9 - 10 months are the traditional off - season, with supply pressure due to limited capacity control. Spot freight rates are falling. Shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, and there is uncertainty about Red Sea re - navigation. There are opportunities for an oversold rebound [8] 2. Industry News - Chinese export container transportation market: Stable after the National Day holiday, with rebound in ocean - going route freight rates driving up the composite index. China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing improved manufacturing activity [9] - European routes: Eurozone's September composite PMI rose to 51.2, with service PMI at a 9 - month high. On October 10, Shanghai - to - Europe basic port freight rate increased by 10.0% [9] - Mediterranean routes: Market moved in sync with European routes, with rising spot booking prices. On October 10, Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port freight rate increased by 4.9% [9] - North American routes: US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, below the boom - bust line. The US imposed additional fees on Chinese ships, and China countered. On October 10, Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port freight rates rose by 0.5% and 2.8% respectively [10] - Israel - Hamas cease - fire: Hamas announced a cease - fire agreement, and both sides will release detainees. Israel allows Turkish aid to enter Gaza. The US plans to send up to 200 soldiers to assist in Gaza [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on October 13 was 1031.8, down 1.4% from October 6 [12] - SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on October 13 was 862.48, down 1.6% from October 6 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Data on container shipping futures for European routes are presented in Table 1, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, and trading volume [6]