建信期货原油日报-20251016

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report predicts that the oversupply in the global crude oil market may further intensify, and oil prices continue to decline. The fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026 will see inventory accumulation, with the rate of inventory accumulation increasing compared to previous forecasts [6]. - Fundamentals are bearish, and the Israel - Palestine situation has eased recently. While the Russia - Ukraine situation may provide upward momentum for oil prices, the expected inventory accumulation will drag down oil prices after an upward surge. The recommended operation is to short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $59.17, closing at $58.18, with a decline of 1.51%. Brent's opening price was $63.49, closing at $62.28, down 1.64%. SC's opening price was 442.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 443.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.79% [6]. - Inventory Forecast: In the fourth quarter of 2025, inventory is expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.55 million barrels per day, 0.32 million barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. In 2026, the inventory accumulation rate is raised from 1.87 million barrels per day to 2.09 million barrels per day [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [7]. 2. Industry News - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 28 - month high, and Russia has the potential to increase oil production [8]. - Industry insiders have different views on future oil prices, with some predicting that oil prices will hover around the mid - to - high $60s per barrel next year, and others believing that the oil market will enter a downward cycle with an expected oversupply of about 2 million barrels per day next year [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18][22]