建信期货生猪日报-20251016

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase to drive the market under the low - price background [9] - The spot market has both supply and demand increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. The spot price is likely to remain in a weakly fluctuating state [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and then fell in a fluctuating manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 6,157 lots to 281,593 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 15th, the average price of the national outer three - yuan was 11.05 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Supply and Demand Analysis: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. On the demand side, the cost of secondary fattening is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the decline in pen utilization. The terminal lacks obvious positive support, but as the weather turns cooler, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have increased slightly, but the overall increase is limited. On October 15th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,300 heads, an increase of 2,500 heads from the previous day, 9,700 heads week - on - week, and 14,200 heads month - on - month [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - Profit and Cost: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head. The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - Price Difference: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17] - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [17]