建信期货工业硅日报-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 16, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different sectors such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 206,727 lots, and the open interest was 144,190 lots, a net decrease of 18,484 lots [4] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable, basis fluctuations weakened, and capital divergence converged. Supply - side pressure persisted, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There was no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organic silicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The oversupply pressure remained, and there was no de - stocking drive in the market. The policy side entered a vacuum period. Future support was mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits were yet to be observed. Fundamentally, it was difficult to provide significant drivers, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4] 4. Market News - On October 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,357 lots, a net decrease of 840 lots compared to the previous trading day. The organic silicon DMC market remained stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still had some pre - sold orders as support. Currently, the number of overhauling manufacturers was large, and some manufacturers planned to enter overhaul, leading to a reduction in market supply [5]