芳烃橡胶早报-20251017

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report PTA - PTA device maintenance led to a slight decline in starting - up, polyester load increased month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulated, and basis remained weak with low - level spot processing fees. PX domestic start - up increased, overseas devices restarted, PXN widened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency remained stable while isomerization efficiency weakened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened. TA may have additional production cuts and production plans, but considering no unexpected performance of polyester, the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. After the valuation is repaired month - on - month, the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. MEG - Near - end domestic oil - based start - up remained stable, coal - based restarted, overall load increased to a high level, there was some maintenance overseas, port inventory accumulated significantly at the beginning of next week due to increased arrivals during the holiday and dull shipments, basis strengthened slightly, and the efficiency ratio further shrank. With the existing start - up reaching a relatively high level and new device commissioning, it will enter a continuous inventory - accumulation stage, but after the coal - based efficiency and ratio weaken, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based cost at the lower end [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Some devices were under maintenance, some increased load, start - up decreased to 94.3%, sales volume decreased month - on - month, and inventory increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking increased, finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, and efficiency was weak. Considering the high - level finished product inventory of polyester yarn, the speed of increasing load may slow down. Although the spot efficiency of staple fiber is good and start - up remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [7]. Natural Rubber - National warehouse inventory remained stable at an absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price remained stable, and there was rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - From January to October 2025, data such as PTA spot price, PX price, PTA processing fee, polyester load, etc. were presented. For example, on January 1st, 2025, the PTA spot price was 4490, and the PX price was 6595. The average daily spot basis was 2601(- 83). Yisheng New Materials increased its load by 3.6 million tons [1]. MEG - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, data on MEG price, profit, load, and inventory were provided. For example, on October 10th, 2025, the MEG domestic price was 4206, and the port inventory was 77.7. The basis was around 01(+ 64). Shell's 400,000 - ton device was under maintenance [7]. Polyester Staple Fiber - From October 1st to 1st (it seems there is a data presentation problem here, presumably multiple days in October), data on staple fiber price, profit, load, etc. were given. The spot price was around 6302, and the market basis was around 11 + 40. Xinjiang Jianshanli was under maintenance, and Zhejiang Huaxing increased its load, with start - up decreasing to 94.3% [7]. Natural Rubber - From October 1st to 16th, 2025, data on natural rubber price, processing profit, and price difference were presented. For example, on October 1st, 2025, the Shanghai full - latex price was 14730. The strategy is to wait and see [7]. Styrene - related Products - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, data on the price of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their production profits and start - up rates were provided. For example, on October 10th, 2025, the pure benzene (CFR China) price was 5740 [7].