LPG早报-20251017

Group 1: Report's Core View - The PDH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. One can focus on narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1] Group 2: Market Data and Changes Daily Changes - On Thursday, civil gas prices declined. In East China, it was 4369 (-5), in Shandong 4280 (-70), and in South China 4500 (-30). Ether - post carbon four was 4460 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 28 (-174), and the November - December spread was 137 (+8). FEI and CP increased to 474 (+8) and 450 (+1) dollars per ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); in Shandong it was 4450 (-100), and in South China 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. The FEI monthly spread was - 15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was - 8.75 dollars (+0.25). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28) [1] Market Conditions - The inventory pressure is small, the supply is abundant, the chemical demand provides strong support, and the combustion demand is gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct), with some plants like Haiwei, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week [1]