白糖早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap [4][9][35] - The domestic sugar market shows a narrowing long - term supply gap, and the new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities after the end of the consumption peak season. The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 has weakened, and attention should be paid to the filling of the 5450 gap [4][5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7400000 tons, 1200000 tons more than the August forecast. StoneX expects a 2770000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11162100 tons, and the cumulative sales were 10000000 tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60000 tons, and 115500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 155700 tons. The situation is bearish [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5810, and the basis for the 01 contract is 402, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1160000 tons, a neutral situation [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5] - Expectation: New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the consumption peak season has passed. After continuous declines, the downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 has weakened. Although the overall center of gravity has shifted down, the trend is tortuous, and there are technical rebounds in the intraday session. Attention should be paid to the filling of the 5450 gap [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO expects a narrowing supply gap to 20000 tons; StoneX expects a 2770000 - ton surplus; Czarnikow expects a 6200000 - ton surplus (another mention is 7500000 tons); Datagro expects a 1530000 - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics expects a 4200000 - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 400000 - ton surplus; Green Pool expects a 1150000 - ton surplus [35] - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1230000 hectares, the beet planting area is 210000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 11200000 tons, the import volume is 5000000 tons, the consumption is 15900000 tons, and the balance change is 120000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37] - Import and Cost Data: In August 2025, China imported 830000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60000 tons, and 115500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 155700 tons. The import cost of raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff in September 2025 was about 5454 yuan per ton [9][42] 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.