沪锌期货早报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The LME inventory warrants remain at a low level, while the SHFE warrants continue to increase. The overall analysis of various indicators shows a mixed situation, with some indicators being bullish, some neutral, and some bearish [2][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,010, and the basis is +70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On October 16, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 38,300 tons compared to the previous day. On October 15, the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,800 tons to 67,466 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is short, and the short positions increased, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 16) - The trading volume of all contracts was 192,896 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11928299 billion yuan. The total open interest was 219,855 lots, an increase of 15,504 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 29 - October 16, 2025) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 16) - The total zinc warrants in the SHFE on October 16 were 67,466 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 16) - The total LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate in major cities across the country decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc ingots from major smelters showed varying degrees of decline [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 16) - The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions are in a certain range, and there is no change in the price compared to the previous period [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 16) - In the trading of the zn2511 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 151,006 lots, a decrease of 51,065 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 62,557 lots, a decrease of 620 lots, and the total short positions were 60,446 lots, a decrease of 1,223 lots [17].