焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-17）-20251017

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 焦煤: After previous destocking, downstream coking enterprises have started to make appropriate purchases of some coal types, mainly in small quantities. Steel mills' hot metal production is oscillating at a high level, and most enterprises are purchasing on - demand. However, due to poor profits, there are many maintenance expectations in the future, and the enthusiasm for expanding coking coal purchases is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price may run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - 焦炭: There may still be a gap in the supply and demand of coke in the near future, and the rebound of coking coal prices at the raw material end strengthens the cost support for coking enterprises. However, considering the gradual decline in steel profits and poor sales, steel mills are increasing production restrictions and maintenance, which may affect the daily consumption of coke. The current market expectations are divided, and it is expected that coke may remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - 焦煤 - Fundamentals: Some coal mines in production areas have stopped production. Downstream coking and steel enterprises still have rigid demand for raw coal replenishment, and some enterprises have started appropriate replenishment. The auction non - success rate of major mines remains low, and transaction prices have mostly risen, driving market sentiment to improve, and coal mines' willingness to hold prices has increased [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 74.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week, including 781.1 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 819.3 tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main net long position in coking coal has increased [3]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. - 焦炭 - Fundamentals: Recently, the price of some coking coal at the raw material end has risen, squeezing the profit margin of coking enterprises and increasing production pressure. Some coking enterprises in production areas have reduced production due to environmental protection maintenance, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply. Coking enterprises are mainly focused on active sales, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 62.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week, including 650.8 tons in steel mills, 195.1 tons in ports, and 42.5 tons in independent coking enterprises [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position in coke has decreased [7]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - Imported Coking Coal: On October 16 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals at different ports are provided, including those from Russia and Australia, with some price increases [10]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: On October 16 (17:30), the price indices of port metallurgical coke of different grades and at different ports are provided, with no price changes [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28]. Other Data - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].