沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The medium - to long - term supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend, and it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [2]. - 不锈钢: The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 沪镍 Analysis - Fundamentals: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventory increased during the National Day holiday. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The medium - to long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 122,150, and the basis is 880, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory is 250,344 (an increase of 3,588), and the SHFE warrant is 26,474 (a decrease of 84), showing a bearish signal [2]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. Stainless Steel Analysis - Fundamentals: The spot price of stainless steel remains unchanged. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and shipping costs are firm, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The cost line is firm, and stainless steel inventory has increased, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Basis: The average price of stainless steel is 13,725, and the basis is 1,110, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The futures warrant is 83,231 (a decrease of 776), showing a neutral situation [4]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Price and Inventory Data - Price: The prices of nickel and stainless steel on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are presented in detail, including futures and spot prices of different varieties [13]. - Inventory: For nickel, LME inventory, SHFE warrants, and total inventory data on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are provided. For stainless steel, inventory data in Wuxi, Foshan, and the whole country on October 10 and the changes in futures warrants on October 16 compared with October 15 are given [16][19][20]. Cost Data - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron: The prices of different grades of nickel ore and nickel iron on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are presented, including CIF prices of red - soil nickel ore and prices of high - and low - nickel iron [23]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: Traditional cost is 13,005, scrap steel production cost is 13,238, and low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,822 [25]. - Nickel Import Cost: The import price is converted to 122,547 yuan/ton [28].