Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the news of new device production further suppresses market expectations. The spot basis continues to weaken. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate mainly following the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 540,000 tons this week, and the weekly arrival volume is neutral. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak in October, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month. The future spot liquidity will be loose. The current price cannot squeeze out effective supply, which makes the market sentiment weak. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market will operate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to external factors and device changes [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for previous day review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The mainstream price of October goods was at a discount of 85 to the 01 contract, with individual transactions slightly higher at 01 - 80 and slightly lower at 01 - 90, and the price negotiation range was around 4,325 - 4,380. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,360, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 96, with the contract price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly, and the market negotiation was acceptable. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened slightly higher and then declined, and the market negotiation was weak. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk was firm and rising due to news, and the spot basis strengthened synchronously in the afternoon. At the end of the session, the spot transaction was at a premium of 72 - 73 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was firm and rising, and the trading volume of near - ocean tender goods increased. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction price of recent cargoes was around 481 - 486 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the disk adjusted slightly, and the negotiation price of recent cargoes was around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton. Traders participated in the transaction. There were transactions of tender goods from Taiwan and South Korea during the day, with a cargo volume of around 17,000 tons [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,126, and the basis of the 01 contract is 37, with the spot price higher than the contract price [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 495,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing Factors Summary: - Positive Factors: Before the festival, driven by the rebound of demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the front - spinning of filament decreased rapidly to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the festival, the polyester price was stable, and the filament production and sales were only 10% - 20%. It is estimated that the average inventory accumulation in 8 days is more than 5 days. Some PTA device overhauls and capacity reduction, and the new device production is postponed [10][11]. - Negative Factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing to over 90% capacity, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12]. - Current Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, pay attention to the upper resistance level [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [15]. - Price Data: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol, and the processing fees and profits of related products [16]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - Industry Start - up Rate: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [55][57][59][61]. - Profit Data: It shows the profits of PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers from 2022 to 2025 [63][65][67][69][70].
PTA、MEG早报-20251017
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-17 01:58