棉花早报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally bearish, with expected increases in supply and weak market performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 01 contract of the main cotton is expected to have a short - term weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The national cotton output is expected to reach 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different data for the 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA9 monthly report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,664, and the basis is 1344 (01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in October of the 25/26 annual period to be 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is about to pass, the market is sluggish, and textile and clothing exports in September are weak. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. The main 01 contract will have a short - term weak rebound [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): The total global production in the 25/26 annual period is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; the total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11][12]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 25/26 annual period, the global production is 2.590 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 annual period, the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.