大越期货沪铜早报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The inventory has rebounded, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented, so copper prices are expected to remain strong [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve; neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price is 85,335, the basis is 265, showing a premium over futures; neutral [2] - Inventory: On October 16, copper inventory decreased by 900 to 137,450 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons from last week to 109,690 tons; neutral [2] - Market trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2] - Main positions: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: The inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented, so copper prices will remain strong [2] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3] -利空: Trade war escalation [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22]