大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - In the future, it is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 74040 - 75840 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.08%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand side: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26% [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,373 yuan/ton, a daily - on - week increase of 0.06%, with a production profit of - 1438 yuan/ton, indicating a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 75,870 yuan/ton, a daily - on - week increase of 0.92%, with a production profit of - 5918 yuan/ton, also indicating a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - On October 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was - 2080 yuan/ton, and the spot was at a discount to the futures. The downstream inventory was 57,735 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%, lower than the historical average. The smelter inventory was 34,283 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%, higher than the historical average [8]. 3.1.3 Market Trends - The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.1.4 Expectations - In September 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 89,890 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.00%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 74040 - 75840 [8]. 3.1.5 Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import of lithium spodumene [9]. - Bearish factors: High - level and limited - decline supply from the ore/salt lake end, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Yesterday's market overview shows the price and price changes of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as the basis and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [14]. - The supply - demand data overview shows the supply - side data such as the weekly and monthly production, cost, and profit of lithium carbonate, and the demand - side data such as the production, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and ternary precursors [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Lithium ore price trends, production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica, import volume of lithium concentrate, and lithium ore self - sufficiency rate are presented over different time periods [22]. - The supply - demand balance table of domestic lithium ore shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium ore from September 2024 to September 2025 [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - The weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) are presented over different time periods [28]. - The supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate shows the demand, export, import, production, and balance of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - The weekly and monthly production capacity utilization rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) are presented over different time periods [37]. - The supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide shows the demand, export, import, production, and balance of lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials for producing lithium carbonate, as well as the processing costs and profit margins of lithium hydroxide and industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, are presented over different time periods [42][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - The trends of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory (by smelter, downstream, and others), and monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide (by smelter and downstream) are presented over different time periods [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - The price trends, monthly production, monthly loading volume, monthly shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries are presented over different time periods [53][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - The price trends, cost - profit situations, capacity utilization rate, production capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented over different time periods [58]. - The supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors shows the export, demand, import, production, and balance of ternary precursors from September 2024 to September 2025 [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - The price trends, cost - profit situations, weekly production start - up rate, production capacity, production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented over different time periods [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - The price trends, production costs, cost - profit situations, production capacity, monthly production start - up rate, monthly production, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented over different time periods [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory warning and inventory indexes of new energy vehicles are presented over different time periods [76][80].