永安期货有色早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - Market Situation: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - Market Situation: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - Market Situation: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - Market Situation: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - Market Situation: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - Market Situation: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - Market Situation: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - Market Situation: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - Market Situation: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].