大越期货尿素早报-20251017

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, with both industrial and agricultural demand being weak. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. Enterprise inventories are accumulating, and inventories have increased in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea supply-demand imbalance is still significant. The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - Likely Factors: International prices are strong [5]. - Negative Factors: High daily production and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1550 (unchanged), and the Henan spot price is 1540 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2749 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 01 contract is 1600 (+3), the price of the UR05 contract is 1669 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), including 1.444 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 415,000 tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased [9].