大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251017

Report Header - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with expected weak and volatile trends for both today [4][6] - For LLDPE and PP, factors such as geopolitical unrest provide cost support, while weak demand, new capacity in Q4, and Sino - US trade risks are negative factors [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from last month, with improved but still contracting manufacturing. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil offers limited cost support. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, oil prices dropped. With fewer plant overhauls, production increased. Agricultural film operations were stable, and other film demand was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 points. The long - term crude oil pattern offers limited cost support. After the tariff threat, oil prices dropped. There is sufficient supply, with good performance in plastic weaving due to the peak season and weak pipe demand. The current PP delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 35, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, bearish [6] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rates, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The current delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6910 (-8), the basis is 40 (-2), the import US dollar price is 823 (-5), the import conversion price is 7221 (-42), and the import price difference is - 271 (32). The warehouse receipt is 12707 (-10), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 54.3 tons, and social inventory is 52.5 tons [8] - PP: The current delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6595 (-7), the basis is - 35 (-33), the import US dollar price is 820 (-5), the import conversion price is 7195 (-42), and the import price difference is - 635 (2). The warehouse receipt is 13814 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 68.1 tons, and social inventory is 37.2 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15]