大越期货甲醇早报-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly, while the port market has shown a slight firmness. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment. It is predicted that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2250 - 2345 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show that the inland market has a large decline, and the port market is slightly firm. The basis is neutral, inventory is slightly bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely factors: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol production has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to be put into production this month; Northwest CTO plants are buying methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 1, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1258,900 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 63,400 tons to 877,000 tons [5]. - Price and spread: The closing price of the futures main contract is 2319 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis is - 22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the import spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and some are planned, while others are due to faults or limited gas supply [59]. - Foreign plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have reduced production, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have specific operating conditions [60]. - Olefin plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have specific operating conditions, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which started methanol and olefin maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days [61].